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房价将会跌多少?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年11月13日 11:20:10
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(  据)(报)(道)(,最)(近)(一)(些)(地)(方)(开)(始)(低)(调)(松)(绑)(楼)(市)(。房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(的)(走)(势)(令)(人)(关)(注)(。国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(的)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,房)(价)(已)(经)(开)(始)(普)(遍)(下)(跌)(,5月)(份)(,70个)(大)(中)(城)(市)(中)(,新)(建)(商)(品)(住)(宅)(价)(格)(环)(比)(下)(降)(的)(城)(市)(有)(35个)(。由)(于)(翘)(尾)(因)(素)((去)(年)(房)(价)(涨)(幅)(高)(),目)(前)(绝)(大)(多)(数)(城)(市)(的)(房)(价)(同)(比)(还)(是)(上)(涨)(的)(。我)(们)(预)(计)(,到)(明)(年)(一)(季)(度)(,就)(会)(出)(现)(房)(价)(同)(比)(也)(普)(遍)(下)(跌)(的)(形)(势)(。  房)(价)(下)(跌)(几)(乎)(已)(成)(定)(局)(,围)(绕)(这)(个)(问)(题)(的)(争)(论)(会)(越)(来)(越)(少)(。现)(在)(人)(们)(最)(关)(心)(的)(是)(,房)(价)(会)(降)(到)(什)(么)(程)(度)(?要)(回)(答)(这)(个)(问)(题)(,我)(们)(首)(先)(需)(要)(搞)(清)(楚)(这)(些)(年)(房)(价)(快)(速)(上)(涨)(的)(原)(因)(。关)(于)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(的)(原)(因)(,有)(三)(种)(常)(见)(的)(解)(释)(,一)(是)(城)(市)(人)(口)(快)(速)(增)(长)(,形)(成)(了)(对)(住)(房)(的)(刚)(性)(需)(求)(;二)(是)(贫)(富)(差)(距)(大)(,富)(人)(钱)(太)(多)(,形)(成)(了)(对)(住)(房)(的)(投)(资)(性)(需)(求)(;三)(是)(市)(面)(上)(资)(金)(太)(多)(,形)(成)(了)(对)(房)(地)(产)(的)(投)(机)(性)(需)(求)(。其)(实)(,这)(三)(方)(面)(的)(因)(素)(都)(对)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(有)(推)(动)(作)(用)(。但)(在)(不)(同)(的)(时)(期)(,起)(主)(要)(作)(用)(的)(因)(素)(是)(不)(同)(的)(。  房)(价)(是)(在)(2004年)(以)(后)(进)(入)(快)(速)(上)(涨)(周)(期)(的)(,期)(间)(有)(增)(速)(较)(慢)(甚)(至)(短)(期)(下)(跌)(的)(时)(期)(,但)(总)(体)(形)(势)(是)(持)(续)(、快)(速)(地)(上)(涨)(。从)(2004年)(到)(2008年)(,促)(涨)(的)(主)(要)(因)(素)(是)(城)(市)(化)(。由)(于)(地)(区)(差)(距)(大)(,一)(线)(城)(市)(和)(沿)(海)(地)(区)(的)(发)(展)(水)(平)(明)(显)(高)(于)(中)(西)(部)(地)(区)(,吸)(引)(了)(更)(多)(人)(前)(来)(工)(作)(和)(定)(居)(,统)(计)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,一)(线)(城)(市)(的)(常)(住)(外)(来)(人)(口)(增)(长)(在)(2006年)(前)(后)(加)(快)(了)(。在)(一)(线)(城)(市)(房)(价)(快)(速)(上)(涨)(的)(示)(范)(作)(用)(下)(,一)(些)(投)(资)(者)((如)(温)(州)(人)(、煤)(老)(板)()推)(动)(了)(二)(三)(线)(城)(市)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(。  2008年)(金)(融)(危)(机)(爆)(发)(后)(,房)(价)(在)(2009年)(上)(半)(年)(增)(长)(放)(缓)(。但)(在)(一)(系)(列)(刺)(激)(之)(下)(,房)(价)(又)(很)(快)(上)(扬)(。房)(价)(只)(涨)(不)(跌)(的)(“神)(话)(”似)(乎)(成)(真)(,住)(宅)(成)(了)(非)(常)(优)(质)(的)(投)(资)(品)(,富)(人)(的)(投)(资)(性)(需)(求)(将)(房)(价)(迅)(速)(拉)(高)(,是)(主)(要)(的)(促)(涨)(因)(素)(,而)(信)(贷)(快)(速)(增)(长)(造)(成)(的)(资)(金)(过)(剩)(起)(到)(了)(推)(波)(助)(澜)(的)(作)(用)(。到)(了)(这)(个)(阶)(段)(,大)(部)(分)(刚)(需)(都)(只)(能)(望)(洋)(兴)(叹)(、徒)(呼)(奈)(何)(。2010年)(4月)(,限)(购)(政)(策)(出)(台)(,暂)(时)(结)(束)(了)(房)(价)(加)(速)(上)(涨)(的)(周)(期)(—这)(从)(侧)(面)(证)(明)(了)(富)(人)(的)(投)(资)(性)(需)(求)(是)(这)(个)(时)(期)(的)(主)(要)(促)(涨)(因)(素)(。  2011年)(和)(2012年)(,商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(情)(况)(不)(太)(好)(,房)(价)(涨)(得)(不)(算)(快)(。但)(开)(发)(商)(并)(不)(着)(急)(,他)(们)(没)(有)(降)(价)(促)(销)(,而)(是)(捂)(盘)(惜)(售)(,因)(为)(他)(们)(的)(资)(金)(链)(条)(并)(不)(紧)(张)(,贷)(款)(增)(速)(比)(较)(高)(,而)(且)(他)(们)(可)(以)(通)(过)(多)(种)(渠)(道)(获)(得)(资)(金)(,一)(部)(分)(金)(融)(创)(新)(使)(更)(多)(的)(资)(金)(投)(到)(了)(房)(地)(产)(。这)(部)(分)(过)(度)(的)(金)(融)(创)(新)(造)(成)(的)(资)(金)(充)(裕)(,是)(开)(发)(商)(能)(在)(2011年)(和)(2012年)(维)(持)(房)(价)(不)(下)(降)(的)(主)(要)(因)(素)(。它)(在)(2013年)(又)(变)(成)(推)(动)(房)(价)(疯)(狂)(上)(涨)(的)(主)(要)(因)(素)(。随)(着)(规)(避)(限)(购)(政)(策)(的)(方)(法)(越)(来)(越)(多)(,2013年)(,低)(迷)(了)(两)(年)(的)(商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(重)(又)(大)(幅)(增)(长)(。但)(开)(发)(商)(并)(不)(急)(于)(卖)(房)(子)(,这)(年)(住)(宅)(竣)(工)(面)(积)(下)(降)(了)(0.4%,住)(宅)(新)(开)(工)(面)(积)(也)(仅)(增)(长)(11.6%。但)(是)(,在)(房)(价)(越)(涨)(越)(高)(的)(同)(时)(,他)(们)(的)(资)(金)(成)(本)(也)(越)(来)(越)(高)(,依)(靠)(借)(贷)(捂)(盘)(的)(难)(度)(越)(来)(越)(大)(,他)(们)(只)(能)(降)(价)(促)(销)(维)(持)(资)(金)(链)(。  通)(过)(对)(不)(同)(阶)(段)(主)(要)(促)(涨)(因)(素)(的)(分)(析)(,我)(们)(可)(以)(对)(房)(价)(降)(到)(什)(么)(程)(度)(能)(得)(出)(一)(个)(大)(致)(的)(结)(论)(。一)(部)(分)(过)(度)(的)(金)(融)(创)(新)(对)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(的)(推)(动)(作)(用)(已)(经)(不)(可)(持)(续)(,这)(会)(使)(房)(价)(回)(到)(2013年)(之)(前)(的)(水)(平)(,下)(跌)(20%甚)(至)(更)(多)(一)(点)(。但)(是)(,如)(果)(地)(区)(差)(距)(和)(贫)(富)(差)(距)(没)(有)(改)(变)(,房)(价)(不)(太)(可)(能)(再)(继)(续)(下)(跌)(到)(2008年)(时)(的)(水)(平)(,也)(就)(是)(说)(,中)(等)(及)(以)(下)(的)(收)(入)(群)(体)(购)(房)(仍)(然)(会)(很)(难)(。(编)(辑)(祝)(乃)(娟)()  作)(者)(:欧)(阳)(觅)(剑)(
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